The SpaceX IPO Fade — Quantitative Event Study
Pre-registered three-study analysis of post-IPO underperformance, n=63, median −29.2% vs QQQ at 180 trading days.
Dates
Jun 2026
Stack
PythonpandasNumPyQuantitative Finance
Overview
A pre-registered three-study analysis of post-IPO underperformance.
Main result
Across n=63, the median was −29.2% versus QQQ at 180 trading days.
Replication
The methodology was extended to the broader IPO universe as a replication. That replication failed the pre-registered criteria. The negative result is reported rather than the criteria being adjusted.
Full writeup
The full thesis is available on the publications page.